Pudner Breaks Down Early Vote for Fox News

My interviews this morning on  Fox News Radio from 6 am to 10 am CT focused on the priority for the Wisconsin Faith & Freedom Coalition – registering conservatives and turning them out to vote. If this is not done, then liberals will continue to be more successful in turning out voters the two ways they do it best –  – voting on college campuses with same-day registration and early voting. The linked interview is the first one of the day at 6 am in South Carolina, with the final just before 10 am across the lake from our Milwaukee office in Michigan.

Whether it is the 368,000 church-going Christians who did not register to vote in my old state of Georgia, or the 510,000 conservatives who did not vote in Wisconsin in 2022, the true battle is getting people to register and then cast a ballot. As I stressed on the radio this morning, this will only be successful if conservatives are not discouraged from voting early so that they no longer start election day hundreds of thousands of votes behind.

The following is the breakdown of which party started election day ahead in 2022 based on early voting as calculated in this NBC piece, and the two other rules that help determine election – if same-day voter registration is allowed and if a photo ID is required to vote. The Table makes clear why I warned on Breitbart Radio in 2020 that the push against early voting could cost Trump Pennsylvania. 

In 2022, liberals started election day in Pennsylvania ahead 576,000 votes and started election day in Georgia ahead by 200,000 votes. If conservatives had just cut the early vote margin in half, Dr. Mehmet Oz and Hershel Walker would have won and the US would have controlled the US Senate. In fact, Walker would have won election day without a runoff to give the GOP immediate control.

Donald Trump has a clear edge in Michigan, but that is another state where liberals had a 340,000 early vote edge prior to election day, and now they have gutted their Voter ID law in addition to allowing same-day voter registration.

Wisconsin benefits from strong Voter ID laws, and making improvements such as eliminating most drop boxes. In fact, while in Wisconsin the Milwaukee Journal and The Hill (Trump says he’d accept Wisconsin results ‘if everything’s honest’), Trump noted changing by saying, “But if everything’s honest, which we anticipate it will be — a lot of changes have been made over the last few years — but if everything’s honest, I will absolutely accept the results.”

Florida has shown the solution is clear. What was once the ultimate swing state now yields double-digit Republican wins mainly because it is conservatives with a long history of turning out early votes. In fact, in Florida, it was conservatives that started election day 294,000 votes ahead in 2022.

While door-to-door canvassing is the most effective method of turning out voters, Pudner explained that it costs several dollars per door once you pay for door hangers, data targeting and canvassers’ wages and travel expenses. Because millions more liberals vote early, liberal turnout groups save millions of dollars by skipping their doors while conservatives are still paying to get to the doors of all their voters holding out until election day.

At a time in which the battleground state polls look so good for President Trump, it is possible conservatives could clinch taking back the White House if they are just half as successful as liberals at getting voters to go vote early to not risk being called out of town for work, or having a health issue election day, or being discouraged and going home after waiting in long lines election day as happened in Arizona.

Here is an explanation of the table above.

Group 1

While Trump polls well in Pennsylvania and Michigan, conservatives will need to cut down the million early vote advantage liberals had and the fact that Michigan gutted its Voter ID law in 2022 so now can take full advantage of same-day registration on their college campuses.

Group 2

While many predicted Georgia and North Carolina would shift blue, in fact they have kept the early voting closer and this year groups like Look Ahead America are doing a great job of getting conservatives to the polls early to potentially make it even closer. In addition, they do not allow same-day registration and do require Voter ID.

Group 3

The three swing states in which conservatives kept the early vote fairly even were Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. It is no coincidence that in a year in which 25 of 26 Gubernatorial challengers lost, the two best showings of any challenger in the country were Nevada’s Joe Lombardo, who upset Democrat Steve Sisolak, and Wisconsin’s Tim Michels, who came closer than any of the other 24 challengers to winning. 

In a recent trip to Wisconsin President Trump expressed confidence in the election integrity laws that had been tightened. These include preventing what happened in Wisconsin with liberals collected ballots in parks before voting was allowed to start, and Nevada mailing live ballots to huge lists. The long lines of election day voters that cost Kari Lake led to her now working to organize early voting for this year’s election.

Group 4

The path is very clear for conservatives, as shown in Florida, where Republican early vote efforts led to them starting election day 294,000 votes ahead and turning the once 50-50 state into double digit wins.