While our grassroots team continues their hard work connecting with faith-based voters across Wisconsin, thus far distributing comparison pieces to 64 churches in 28 counties as of writing, President John Pudner took a short reprieve from the trail to call into nearby Champaign, Illinois to analyze the key question on everybody’s mind as we inch closer toward November – which state will be the key to winning the Presidency? Answer: Wisconsin
Leading up to his upcoming 9-stop tour across the Badger state, Pudner, though analyzing polling trends within the eleven closest states during the last three Presidential elections, quantifies not only where the current state of the race has both candidates projected at, but also how Wisconsin, currently on track to lean by 0.4%, well within the recount and margin for error, toward former President Trump, is the most critical state to win for both him and Vice President Harris, as the current trends indicate a 272-266 Electoral College victory for former President Trump if current trends hold OR a similar victory for Harris if the slightest change were to occur during this ever-volatile election cycle, thus underpinning why Wisconsin, not fellow Midwestern states like Pennsylvania or Michigan, for example, is, has been, and will continue to be the key toward winning the presidency.
Both Pudner and host Stevie Jay highlight not only why the faith-based vote will be critical in Wisconsin, but how, despite the vitriol, divisions, and dysfunction often seen in today’s politics, it’s more important than ever for men and women of faith to be a light upon the world and get involved in their communities, towns, and counties to elect sound, common-sense, faith-based leadership up and down the ticket.
The following transcript of this interview is presented with minor edits:
Stevie Jay
Well, it’s our friend, John Pudner. How are you, sir? Nice to talk to you.
WIFFC President John Pudner
Fantastic. Thanks for everything!
Stevie Jay
Always a pleasure to call the Milwaukee man, and this man escaped the Swamp, decided for a semi-normal life. What are you doing? How can people be involved in what you’re doing?
WIFFC President John Pudner
We started a new group this year, Wisconsin Faith and Freedom, and we’re basically turning out the faith-based vote in churches across Wisconsin. They’re doing it in other states, too.
Stevie Jay
I understand that the faith-based don’t always vote, is that right?
WIFFC President John Pudner
It’s crazy. Almost half of people go to churches in Wisconsin, for example, and do not vote.
Stevie Jay
Why!?
WIFFC President John Pudner
There’s always been a sense, in polling and focus groups, that politics is a bit dirty, which I think we’d all agree with, but then they take that extra step, saying it’s so dirty that they shouldn’t be involved. That’s always the battle with your church-going membership. It’s just whether or not they show up to the polls.
Stevie Jay
I was stunned to hear that stat. So, where are we in the election and what do you think happens here? We’ve got a Vice Presidential debate, which nobody really watches, but I guess we’ll watch this one, but I don’t know.
WIFFC President John Pudner
We always, about this time, look at the trends, and we kind of assume the way that the polls are moving in each state will continue through the election. Just this morning, we broke that down, which we did in 2016 at the same time, and that map came out almost the same on Election Day. Trump is about a point short in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, which are obviously states he doesn’t want to lose, but she’s got about a point edge if current trends continue. But, ironically, that still gives Trump a 272-266, win because the trend has him slightly pulling out in not only North Carolina and Georgia, but also up here in Wisconsin. We’ve had the biggest movement in the average. It was 3.4 points for Harris, but now it’s down to 1.5, and that’s, by far, the biggest movement of any state in the past month. If that continues, he gets Wisconsin by 0.4 points, so if you go via the trend lines, it’s a 272-266 Trump victory right now.
Stevie Jay
So close! And again, I wonder about all this, John, because if somebody asks me, I’m not talking. I don’t want to be on record about being for Donald Trump, right? I think there are people that are reticent, but what they call them, the Silent Majority? I just think that, what I’d love to see on on election night, is all of a sudden, Virginia is somehow going to Trump, and then it’s over, because if something like that happens, he’ll win more than than we think. I don’t know. I just, I guess, looking at this thing and I’m…okay, Dwight Eisenhower and Kamala Harris. I mean, really? There’s just not a lot there. I mean, you see this, right?
WIFFC President John Pudner
And I would say the only other state, if there were just a big Trump night, would be Minnesota. Now, if I were running campaigns, I still wouldn’t put any money into Minnesota or Virginia, because if you win them, you won a landslide. But, who is to say that couldn’t be the other one that’s moved about as much as Wisconsin? It’s just started further apart. It was an eight point race, now it’s closer than six, so that’s where I’d say, if that trend continue, that could be a four point loss, but that would be your next outlier. Polling is still pretty accurate. You can always point to something being a couple points off, but they get black marks if they miss by a lot. There are a lot of BS polls a few months out, because there’s no accountability, but by the last month, month and a half, they end up been within a point or two, so I wouldn’t expect a huge surprise…
Stevie Jay
But don’t they oversample Democrats a lot, John?
WIFFC President John Pudner
Not really. The thing is, early on, sometimes a liberal pollster will put out a poll that has more of them, just to build momentum for the candidate, but the last month, you really get judged on how accurate you are. So, for example, Huffington Post was way off right till the end of 2016 and they all got fired. They gave Trump a 2% chance to win. In the end, they want to be right. You may see a bogus poll two months out, but we’re in that period now where they’re jobs are on the line, they’re going to try to get it right the last month and a half.
Stevie Jay
Okay, we will see what happens. Always a pleasure to call you, John. We appreciate you. How can people connect with you?
WIFFC President John Pudner
They can go to WisconsinFFC.com. That’s where we have news from around the country, but yeah, WisconsinFFC.com is the easiest.
Stevie Jay
Really appreciate your time, John!
