We start with the bad news. Our fundraising fell short and as a result 45 tenacious canvassers, some of whom tirelessly reached more than 1,000 doors per week, concluded their efforts last week. While the end of most of the paid canvassing will leave 117,000 voter comparisons undelivered, the good news is that a surprise $5,000 donation Saturday kept a skeleton crew in place; and we had delivered more than 400,000 before the budget ran out.
The first thing the remaining skeleton crew did was to catch attendees leaving Spanish churches Sunday. If we get other last-minute tax-deductible contributions, we will “feed to meter” to put a couple of the top producers back on doors to get a bit of those 117,000 to conservatives most likely to skip voting without it.
While it makes us nervous to not reach that many church-goers when less than a quarter of them could decide many Wisconsin elections, we all learned during Leadership Institute training; 1) don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good (it was a good operation), and 2) the other side (progressive non-profits) have problems too.
Arabs in Michigan (Trump 44% chance of win), Hispanics in Wisconsin (47%)
Sunday nine days before the election, minority communities were the focus in the only two battleground states where Nate Silver’s latest calculations indicate Kamala Harris as a slight favorite. On Sunday, Donald Trump concentrated his efforts on Michigan, home to the largest Arab population in any battleground state, winning endorsements from leaders within the 211,000 Arabs residing there. Silver gives Trump a 44% chance of winning Michigan.
Meanwhile, our Regional Director Juan Luckey highlighted our outreach efforts to Wisconsin’s Hispanic community, which numbers around 430,000—twice as large as Michigan’s Arab population—accounting for 7% of Wisconsin’s overall population. In Wisconsin, Silver shows Trump with a 47% chance to win. Additionally, Harris spoke at a church in Philadelphia on Sunday.
However, not all church attendees wanted more information. While 425 Wisconsin Churches have displayed our comparisons, two churches in western Wisconsin asked us not to distribute comparisons (we of course complied), and during Harris’s speech in Philadelphia, tensions flared as a protestor was removed from the church.
If you speak Spanish, please go to our website to watch WI Faith & Freedom’s Hispanic Regional Director Juan Luckey’s Spanish-language video and check out the photos from our outreach efforts outside of Spanish Masses Sunday.
Positive Developments
In addition to the Hispanic outreach Sunday, we held a successful joint meeting with Faith Wins at the 1st United Presbyterian Church in De Pere. We appreciate the compliments from Chad Connelly, a long-time friend of our efforts. Together, we aim to engage the 567,000 conservative Wisconsin church-goers who initially did not plan to vote. As Connelly emphasized, neither group endorses any candidate; what matters is that more conservatives participate in the electoral process. It’s when they stay home that their voices are silenced. Elected officials do not pay attention to the concerns of groups with low voter turnout.
Current Odds – Trump Needs MI, PA or WI
Here are Nate Silver’s odds released Sunday for Trump’s chances of winning in the swing states. Not surprisingly, Trump will be in Green Bay Wednesday and Milwaukee Friday, while Harris will also include Wisconsin in a trip through all seven battleground states. As we’ve noted, assuming Trump wins all three of the states where he has a 64% or better chance (GA, NC, AZ) he just needs one of the other three (MI, WI or PA). However, NV’s 6 electoral votes would not be enough.:
- Michigan: 44%
- Wisconsin: 47% chance Trump wins via Nate Silver
- Nevada: 50%
- Pennsylvania: 54%
- Georgia: 64%
- North Carolina: 64%
- Arizona: 69%
Your Support Matters
As we strive to finish strong, we ask for your support once again—please donate today to help us continue our outreach efforts!
