Click here or on the image above to hear our ad running on Gospel radio.
4/1 Election Tightens; Why Gospel Radio?; Look at the Numbers!
The week before the Presidential election, Fox News radio stations across the nation invited me on air, and I correctly predicted the impending 312-226 Trump victory. This prediction was based in part on many of 402,000 people making a plan to vote after receiving our Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition candidate comparisons, unlike in 2020 when these voters stayed home.
After a similar push this month, the AP reports today that 345,000 have already voted, compared to just 233,000 at this point in the Supreme Court race two years ago.
Today’s 3 Topics
Why Gospel Music?
Left Complains about the Right Spending ALMOST as Much Money
Graph of the One Real Poll That Leaked
As always, we like to give our readers our topics right away so you can skip ahead if you are only interested in one item. As we continue to include features from our teams around the state – we move from canvassing on bikes in Kenosha, to the snow in Wausau, to the voter experience this week in our area that has had the most different types of voter turnout contact per home.
In all, 36,000 Green Bay area residents received both a text and call from a volunteer. Many then received a flier at their local church, and then at their home near Lambeau Field from our youngest and one of our most persuasive canvassers!
Why Gospel Music?
A week before the Wisconsin Supreme Court race—which The Wall Street Journal called the most important race in the nation in 2025—the Wisconsin Faith and Freedom effort has distributed 200,000 candidate comparisons. This effort also includes a Gospel Radio ad (click here or on the photo at the top).
Before analyzing who is likely to win the race, let’s first explain why we are advertising on Gospel radio. PErhaps using a March Madness analogy will make it clear. March Madness is the one time of year people pay more attention to my other writing about college hoops, which includes CBS247 pieces such as my current “What Happened?” ironically running now just as this post asks what “will” happen April 1.
In basketball, if one team dominates rebounding and steals, they are almost certain to win. That is like politics—if one side has significantly more money, their message overwhelms the opposition, much like a swarming defense and dominant rebounders preventing the other team from scoring.
But if the battle for rebounds and turnovers is even, then an innovative approach like the three-point shot— can decide an otherwise evenly matched contest. Let’s look at some of the three-point shots I’ve been part of.
In the 2014 signature win I had, the decisive shot was focusing all 200 of our volunteer canvassers to simply start by asking, “When was the last time you heard Eric Cantor was in your town?” We won a race despite being outspent $5.0 million to $0.2 million.
In 2016, it was realizing that the statements we were handing out to Amish men while they were in town could be an effective form of advertising once they took the flyers back to their town meetings—and that Trump really could win Pennsylvania.
Now, it is recognizing that in city churches and city neighborhoods where police officers live and are known as friends rather than as outsiders, many Black men are thinking and voting more conservatively.
Riding city buses—whether in my original city of Richmond or my current city of Milwaukee—has provided revealing conversations, such as women discussing that men in their city churches were voting for Trump.
It’s not just Black men. It’s entire Black families who are primarily people of faith who live the values they share. We have so much in common with all people of faith on so many issues. Reaching out to voters where they live – whether they are Amish or Black – is our mission. We work to increase the number of voters of faith.
So yes, we are on Gospel Radio.
Left Complains the Right Has ALMOST as Much $ as Them
The left is complaining that it’s unfair for Elon Musk to spend his money in the Supreme Court race. But by “unfair,” they mean that instead of outspending conservatives by $10 million like in the 2022 Supreme Court race ($32 billion for the liberals to $22 million for the conservatives), they will “only” outspend conservatives by $1 million. This is tracked in the graph from AdImpact Data on Public TV ad buys.
The assumption has been that if the money were even, the liberal candidate would win by a wide margin based on three facts:
- The liberal candidate won a race for this same Supreme Court by 11 points just two years ago.
- The election following a Presidential election is typically won by the opposing party (e.g., Virginia Governor’s races over the years).
- Wisconsin conservatives are generally much less aware of spring elections than liberals.
Graph of the One Real Poll That Leaked
We can see the one professional poll that leaked to Axios below, with a memo from Building America’s Future, Elon Musk’s non-profit. He gets the best numbers possible before investing, and the data shows enough movement that he apparently believes this race could go to the conservative.
The public is right to be skeptical of most polls. Polling generally falls into one of three categories. Only the third type is accurate:
- Media-driven polls—These have small budgets, are often unbalanced, and produce unreliable results. They are primarily used to attract audience share.
- Persuasion polls—Designed to discourage the opposition, these are often seen in outlets like CNN, where an early poll shows a Republican 10 points behind in order to discourage conservatives. Then, just before the election (to maintain credibility with Nate Silver), a final poll is released showing the race much closer so it isn’t that far off after the damage is done.
- Internal donor and campaign polls—These are rarely reported because they are commissioned by donors or campaigns that need accurate data to decide where to invest money and effort.
The poll that leaked to Axios provides a rare look at one of these high-level, accurate polls. As expected, in early March, the race resembled the Wisconsin Supreme Court race from two years ago—a double-digit liberal lead.
However, the polling memo notes that the race has tightened at an unusually fast rate, even though the left has outspent the right. The conservative candidate has closed the gap from 13 points to just 5 points.
The memo further states that if the April 1st turnout mirrors November’s, the liberal candidate would only have a 1-point lead.
Unlike two years ago—before Wisconsin Faith and Freedom was even founded—when a double-digit liberal win was inevitable, the 2025 Supreme Court race is moving from a liberal blowout toward a competitive finish. The saying in politics is to always work like you’re a few points behind, and you will have a chance to hit the winning three-point shot at the buzzer. . For conservatives, that is the reality in this race.
