In what even NBC analyst Steve Kornacki concluded might be the best showing of a tough stretch for conservatives at the ballot box, conservatives took nearly all of the undecided vote to improve from a 51–45 deficit in final polling to a 51–49 margin Tuesday night in Virginia’s gerrymandering vote. In an almost unheard-of accomplishment in an April special election—when turnout typically drops dramatically—more NO votes were cast than conservative votes in the full November Gubernatorial election where turnout is usually much higher.

Pudner told many outlets, including the NY Times and ABC News, the NO side would far exceed its polling numbers and could even pull off a major upset. While the $65 million to $15 million money advantage for the YES side ultimately managed to squeak out the win, the race is worth a case study in how areas worked by www.StopTheGerrymander.com in the western part of the state, along with Pudner’s efforts based in Ashland, Virginia, saw such a surge in votes during a period when many conservative ballot efforts have dropped double digits and lost large leads in special elections.

For example, in Hanover County, where Pudner closed with his door-to-door effort, not only did the NO vote exceed the gubernatorial total, but the Governor who led the YES effort lost 23% of her vote. Pudner is pictured with the mayor of the largest town in the county during his canvassing.

Other members of StopTheGerrymander.com—started by Congressman Ben Cline and supported by multiple visits from Scott Presler drawing large crowds—saw similar results in western counties, where turnout matched or exceeded the past governor’s race.

Most observers expected a result similar to California’s 58%–42% vote advancing gerrymandering. That assumption only hardened when Governor Abigail Spanberger, elected by a similar margin just months earlier, campaigned aggressively for a YES vote.

But on the ground, the story was very different—leading NBC analyst Steve Kornacki to note that such an unexpected conservative surge could be one of the first positive signs for conservatives after a string of special elections where their vote had dropped double digits. Instead, this result showed a surge that nearly produced a win in a state they had lost by 15 points just six months earlier.

When national reporters asked Pudner why he believed the NO vote would run well ahead of polling, he pointed to what he was seeing and hearing across Virginia as he:

• Travelled the full length of Route 58 through Southwest Virginia, beginning with an event with former Governor Glenn Youngkin, stopping at more than a dozen churches and connecting directly with voters
• Walking into general stores where owners eagerly asked to place stacks of VOTE NO flyers on their counters
• Seeing overflow crowds at events with Congressman Ben Cline and Scott Presler, where volunteers signed up to make tens of thousands of calls
• Noticing VOTE NO signs blanketing rural roads—and then, in suburban and urban corridors from Richmond to Reston, seeing something even more telling: homes that had displayed Kamala Harris and Abigail Spanberger signs without adding YES signs, while many homes that had displayed no signs in prior elections now prominently featured VOTE NO

This was consistent with perhaps 400,000 of Abigail Spanberger’s voters staying home, while conservatives saw an unheard of MORE votes cast than in the usually much higher turnout November election for all members of the House and Statewide officials —all despite $65 million being spent to convince the former to vote.

Meanwhile, local activists who canvass with purpose—like the core team mentioned at the bottom of the blog, which knocks on more than 50,000 doors every month—were active in suburban and urban areas, from Liberty University students in Lynchburg to neighborhoods across the Richmond region.

At one stop, Pudner knocked on the door of the Mayor of Ashland. The mayor, who rarely takes positions on non-local issues, not only placed a VOTE NO sign in his yard—making it four in a row on that street—but explained simply:
“This isn’t red or blue—it’s just wrong.”