8:30 am ET/7:30 am CT – Boarding Boston to Huntsville AL – From photo above, FFA President John Pudner (left of photo) and Events Director Kelly Herrell (right) joined Renee and Mike Minogue, before he secured a shocking 70.4% of the vote to win the MassGOP endorsement against two strong opponents. Thousands of Massachusetts Republicans hope Minogue can deliver a 7th win in the last 10 gubernatorial races, while the same week a Wisconsin poll is the first early-cycle poll in the US we have seen showing Republicans within single digits in a Democratic-held governor’s race and actually ahead of Mandela Barns if Tommy Thompson were to run to improve to 5-0.

Mike Minogue, the former West Point graduate and Army Ranger who helped lead first troops into Iraq, secured an overwhelming 70.4% of the vote at the Massachusetts Republican convention—prevailing in a race that drew broad engagement across the party.

That decisive victory comes as Minogue has closed roughly 9 points in polling against Democratic Governor Maura Healey over the past two months, positioning Massachusetts as a state to watch if that trajectory continues.

While Massachusetts Republicans have consistently embraced multiple strong candidates—building support in a competitive primary and then uniting to win the Governor’s Mansion two-thirds of the time since Ronald Reagan in their deep-blue state—the reaction in Wisconsin has often been very different. We saw a similar dynamic in 2022, when suggesting that Tim Michels would be an outstanding addition to a primary field that Rebecca Kleefisch initially seemed poised to win drew pushback rather than enthusiasm.

Pudner received the same pushback this week on what was intended as positive news for Republicans—that in one internal poll we reviewed that Mandela Barnes appeared to be the only Democrat in the US defending a governorship without a double-digit lead in 2026—actually drew a negative reaction when it was also mentioned that, in the same poll, former Governor Tommy Thompson actually ran ahead of Barnes in a hypothetical matchup. 

The tension echoes 2022, when Michels ultimately won a narrow primary 47% to 44%, then went on to deliver the second-best performance among 26 gubernatorial challengers in a cycle where 25 of 26 incumbents were re-elected. That outcome left many wondering whether if Republicans embraced the efforts of two strong candidates to attract more center-right voters rather than complain about an extra candidate building a campaign might have produced a victory—and raises similar concerns this year if the focus again becomes clearing the field for a single candidate, rather than following Massachusetts’ proven model of encouraging strong competition before uniting for the general election.

Each state party has ways to limit the field if a candidate cannot reach certain thresholds. Minogue’s two challengers were very close to the 15% needed to be on the ballot and one made it and one did not – so it will be a 2-person race. Pudner has collected 29,000 ballot signatures through a completely volunteer operation in Virginia, but claims it is MUCH more difficult to college 2,000 signatures in Wisconsin where voters can only sign for one candidate for each office – so it could be that on June 1 there is only one Republican left on the ballot – but that can be determined after any interested candidate announces and sees if they can build a big enough organization to get the required signatures by the end of May.

The reality is stark in Wisconsin. Since Ronald Reagan only four Wisconsin candidates – Ron Johnson, Donald Trump, Scott Walker and Tommy Thompson – have won while all other Republican candidates since Ronald Reagan are 0-19 for President, Governor or US Senate. Since Ronald Reagan Pudner never understood the argument that it is better to present fewer Republican options in order to draw more conservatives – starting in 1993 when I ran a winning effort at the GOP convention that shattered the world record with 13,000 paid delegates attending a huge battle between multiple strong candidates and then combining forces to come from 38 points behind to knock the Democrats out of office. The addition of good candidates gets more conservatives and center-right candidates to participate and vote. 

Massachusetts was the third of three GOPs for which Pudner worked after the Alabama GOP and before that as Political Director for the Virginia GOP shortly after Karl Rove held that spot. If not for the Boston cost of living and his nine children at the time, Pudner might have been convinced to move to Boston to accept a job offer from Geoff Rehnert years ago.

Massachusetts: Competition Driving Momentum

The energy behind Minogue’s victory was visible well before the final vote.

FFA President John Pudner joined Minogue, his wife Renee, Events Director Kelly Herrell, and thousands of Republicans gathered just 24 hours before the convention vote. Many in attendance had just heard Minogue tell the story that has quickly become central to his candidacy: a background that blends military service, private-sector leadership that saved 10s of thousands of lives, and a track record of measurable impact.

After graduating from the United States Military Academy, Minogue served as an Army Ranger, helping lead troops into Iraq. He later transitioned into the private sector and took the helm of Abiomed, a Massachusetts-based medical technology firm he helped rebuild into a global leader in heart recovery.

Under his leadership, Abiomed developed the Impella heart pump—a breakthrough device that has been used to support and save tens of thousands of patients at risk of heart failure. That record—combining leadership, innovation, and tangible outcomes—has become a central part of his appeal to voters.

At the same time, Renee Minogue’s leadership with the Catholic Schools Foundation has played a significant role in preserving Catholic education across Massachusetts, raising millions in scholarships and helping keep inner-city schools open.

Just as important as Minogue’s résumé, however, was the tone of the race.

His opponents—Mike Kennealy and Brian Shortsleeve—were both well regarded, and their presence helped create a competitive environment that energized activists rather than dividing them. Shortsleeve cleared the 15% threshold to remain on the ballot, while Kennealy fell just short, but both contributed to a race defined more by engagement than infighting.

That dynamic reflects a broader pattern. Despite Massachusetts’ deep-blue reputation, Republicans have won 6 of the last 9 gubernatorial races and are now aiming for a 7th win in their last 10—a record stronger than in many traditional battleground states.

The strategy is straightforward: encourage competition, expand the base, and unify afterward.

Wisconsin: A Different Reaction to Competition

In Wisconsin, the reaction to polling has been markedly different.

Mention of the poll results or even word that the poll was being run lead to the accuracy being questioned, motives debated, and even raising the scenario drew pushback. Any poll is one piece of information. Our team has share a number of polls the last year that have led to good strategic shifts that then improved candidates standing. 

The glass is half full – no matter who is on the ticket Barnes may be the only frontrunner who does not have a double digit lead in a state that currently has a Democratic Governor. But the glass is half empty – many have told us they believe Barnes negatives are so high that he would lose as the nominee.

Yet the numbers themselves point to a broader reality worth confronting.

Barnes came within just 1 percentage point of defeating Ron Johnson in 2022. 

Should Republicans remain open to multiple paths to victory, including candidates with proven statewide success—and be happy if they make their case for why they believe they give the greatest chance of victory –  or should the priority be limiting competition in the name of unity?

Even beyond Thompson, some polling suggests Barnes’ advantage narrows into single digits against other potential Republican candidates, indicating that Wisconsin may still represent one of the more plausible pickup opportunities if 2026 proves to be a challenging cycle nationally.

Photos below include a background of the thousands of MassGOP Convention delegates behind our full team on-site including John Pudner and Alex Cucchiaro (now flying back to Alabama), Dan Coats (heading to Atlanta), and Kelly Herrell (returning to Wisconsin). Also pictured are U.S. Senate candidate John Deaton and longtime Massachusetts canvassing director Todd Taylor who has knocked thousands of doors alongside Pudner in Massachusetts. Third photo next to Kelly is Pudner’s long-time friend and former Congressional candidate Helen Berry who was the nicest surprise of the visit as she saw Pudner post on Facebook and found him in the convention hall to meet Kelly. Pudner also ran into MassGOP Executive Director Haley Jones in a crosswalk outside the convention—months after both had canvassed together south of Boston during which Pudner saw the sign at the bottom warning that if he entered a particular yard South of Boston, his body would be found the next day—in door-to-door canvassing, we simply mark those homes “inaccessible” so the next canvasser knows not to even try.