Forty-five days before the Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition team descends on Washington for the premier pro-family event of the year, Road to the Majority (our WIFFC block of rooms is full but you can register here https://www.ffcoalition.com/about/road-to-majority/) , we are pleased to announce that funding has been secured for a paid Executive Director position driven by excitement over promoting Kelly Herrell into that role.(see her bio and the rest of the team here https://wisconsinffc.com/bios/). 

Before making the announcement public Friday, we introduced Kelly to Wisconsin conservative legend and four-term Governor Tommy Thompson. We were truly amazed that Thompson — while balancing international business deals and making his final decision on whether to run for Governor again — took the time to listen carefully to Kelly’s vision for the Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition.

Having written my very first story for the Marquette Tribune in the 1980s about Thompson’s first race for Governor, I still find it remarkable whenever he takes time to mentor younger conservatives who care deeply about Wisconsin. Our Government Relations Director recently served at HHS as the Special Advisor to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and told me Thompson is still a legend there as well — but Wisconsin has always clearly remained his real passion.

The “Wild” Young Legislator Nobody Thought Could Win

In the 1980s, much like today, many political observers believed Wisconsin was becoming permanently blue — though ironically at the time blue represented Republicans on election maps while red represented Democrats before the networks decided it hurt Democrats to be red because Republicans joked that it meant “Communist” so flipped them when I ran national Faith-based turnout in 16 battleground states for Ralph Reed in 2000..

When I was first assigned to cover Thompson’s first gubernatorial campaign, I was told there was a young Republican legislator running a hopeless longshot race against incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Earl. As a student reporter I was encouraged to investigate stories that Thompson was some kind of political wild man, including tales that as a student he once forced a teacher to climb out a classroom window. Apparently that counted as a major scandal 40 years ago LOL. Instead I went to my first event and asked Governor Earl why he wanted to build a prison by the Brewers baseball stadium – a proposal that became a TV commercial.

But that year I saw a poll that reshaped the way I thought about polls and digital targeting the rest of my life..

The survey asked voters that if they had 10 votes to cast, how many would they give Thompson and how many to Earl. Thompson actually won the poll because his supporters overwhelmingly gave all 10 votes to him, while many Earl voters still found the young rebel candidate intriguing enough to split their votes 7-3 or 8-2.

Political reporters mocked the methodology. One columnist joked it might work if you were polling favorite soap brands but not actual elections. Yet in the end it was the only poll that truly captured what was happening beneath the surface — Thompson voters were fully committed, while many Earl supporters were movable.

That same kind of dynamic may be developing again today.

“Everyone Hates Everyone” in Politics Right Now

Only hours after meeting with us Friday, Thompson announced he would not run for Governor and instead endorsed Tom Tiffany.

Shortly afterward, I watched an analysis from Karl Rove that made a point very similar to something I had just told Thompson directly: everyone hates everyone in politics right now.

Rove noted that yes, President Donald Trump has historically bad unfavorable ratings — but the Democratic Party is actually even less popular.

In my words: everyone hates everyone.

The days when politicians like Thompson could maintain 70% favorability with only 20% unfavorable ratings are probably gone forever. In today’s environment, almost half the country wears a red jersey and the other half wears a blue jersey, and both sides increasingly view the other as crazy. Whoever runs for office is likely starting with more than 40% of voters already opposed to them.

Looking at the current RealClearPolitics averages, Rove’s point becomes clear:

• Donald Trump: 39.0% favorable / 56.4% unfavorable (-17.4)
• Republican Party: 39.4% favorable / 53.8% unfavorable (-14.4)
• Democratic Party: 35.7% favorable / 56.0% unfavorable (-20.3)

Historically, Trump’s numbers would have been devastating if he were running against broadly popular figures like Dwight D. Eisenhower or Ronald Reagan.

But politics no longer works that way.

As the old joke goes, if you and another person encounter a hungry grizzly bear, you do not have to outrun the bear — only the other person.

Likewise, Republicans do not necessarily need universally beloved candidates if voters are even more skeptical of the alternative.

Why Thompson’s Decision Matters

I have reviewed public and private polls, and many potential candidates are stuck in single digits with little realistic path to victory.

Thompson, however, was one of only six candidates I saw polling above 40 percent. More importantly, he remains one of only four Wisconsin Republicans to repeatedly win statewide races for Governor, U.S. Senate, or presidential electors since Reagan — the others being Scott Walker, Ron Johnson, and Trump.

By declining to run and joining Walker, Johnson, and Trump in endorsing Tiffany, this likely guarantees that Tiffany will eventually appear on one side of a Wisconsin Faith and Freedom Coalition comparison piece unless another Republican announces who can poll 40% plus and get thousands of signatures on petitions in the next 20 days to get on the ballot.

However, the Faith and Freedom Coalition does not sign off on comparison pieces until a race is pretty clearly down to two candidates in a general election, and while baring some stunning change, Thompson’s endorsement still leaves Tiffany as one of five potential candidates for the issue guide since our Democrats have polled over 40 percent – Francesca Hong, David Crowley, Sara Rodriguez, and Mandela Barnes.

Why FFC Delays Printing Voter Guides

If comparison pieces are ultimately produced, they will likely come much later than many outside groups expect.

During Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race this spring, we did not produce issue guides at all. Instead, we invited both candidates to participate in our Salt and Light event and interview with WIFFC Chairman Paul Hoover.

Likewise, in 2024 the Faith and Freedom Coalition intentionally delayed printing Trump vs. Biden comparisons because internal intelligence suggested Biden might not remain the Democratic nominee. That decision proved correct when Biden exited the race in late July.

As a result, the 29 million Trump vs. Harris voter guides distributed nationwide were not printed until August 2024.

While most were sent from Wisconsin printers to other battleground states, 402,000 were distributed right here in Wisconsin to conservative churches and to faith-based voters who had not voted in 2020.

That effort included tens of thousands of bilingual comparison pieces distributed both door-to-door and at locations such as food stands outside Spanish-language Catholic Masses and Evangelical or Pentecostal churches south of Milwaukee.

From our bio page, please note that Spencer LaVerde oversaw hiring, onboarding and payroll for dozens of canvasser to make this happen and despite not getting the comparisons until August of 2024, Alex Cucchiaro personally reached the most doors of any of the 9000 canvassers with the Faith and Freedom Coalition with more than 20,000 doors reached.

Our goal is never to tell people how to vote, but rather to educate and mobilize faith-based voters around issues important to them.

Still, many observers believe those Spanish-language issue comparisons — particularly on topics such as late-term abortion and men competing in women’s sports — helped contribute to a dramatic increase in support for Trump among Wisconsin’s Spanish-speaking voters.

Trump received approximately 49,000 Spanish-speaking votes in Wisconsin in 2020. In 2024, that number reportedly jumped to roughly 85,000.

Had those additional 36,000 voters simply stayed home instead of voting, Kamala Harris would have won Wisconsin  1,668,229 to 1,661,626.